Your approach sounds very interesting. You should post to the Hurst Trader’s User Forum about it, where you can also post pictures, and there is a good deal of discussion about trading the markets using various cyclic theories.

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The forum is here: http://www.fortuna.co.za/forum/index.php ]]>

Hello to all, I am new here and have just read the article above…..

As per TIME, I have been using combinations of TIME to forecast possible turns for a while now.

I had the idea a cpl of years ago that the mkts had to be DYNAMIC therefore the analysis had to be dymanic aswell, I got the most recent move and then the largest move in the same direction and put on the current turn point that fit the price calculations, and when combining TIME AND PRICE in this manner it is amazing how well it works. I do it on the Daily first, then the Hourly and can break cycles down very well.

This takes consistant monitoring of all the cycles, but working down from the larger to the smaller becomes easier as you get used to it.

I am no expert, but keeping it simple and having patience to see what occurs are the best qualties that can be mastered.

When I work out how to post images I will post to show what I mean.

Regards to all

David

]]>I don’t think that you are “missing” anything. Of course it is impossible to consider an infinite number of cycles – in fact Hurst recommended “at least TWO”. Using THT you can determine the status, or “phasing” of several cycles in most cases (depending on how much data you have analysed).

I would be very careful of the “extrapolation” you mention. If extrapolating a line representing all longer cycles was at all mathematically sound then I would have had THT follow that relatively simple process. There is a good deal of mathematical conjuring that happens when it comes to extrapolating lines into the future, and in my experience it is all no better than guesswork. THT uses the cycle wavelengths to project into the future, using a “pattern building” process, not in a way that is similar to the extrapolation of lines using a mathematical process such as linear regression.

]]>If one is trading daily bars and apparent “cycles” of 1-2 months maximum, how many longer period cycles need to be looked at? For example, if the best fit straight line over 24 months is used to detrend the data, then the cycles remaining are detected and subtracted from the price data until nothing is left but “noise” we ignore in this level of trading, cannot the linear trend just be extrapolated for the short term of 1-2 months, to “represent” the rest of the longer cycles being ignored?

I understand, and know that it is not exactly easy to establish the periods and phase shifts of the relevant cycles, but this is where THT comes in.

What am I missing?

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