Has the peak been due to the 73% fundamental component that Hurst describes in his theory?

I think this discussion could be pretty interesting and not necessarily impact the validility of Hurst’s theory.

thx

]]>Regards,

James

]]>i just downloaded the software and learning how to operate that software, it is very complicated !!

]]>It would be nice if you “updated” this post by adding data and further analysis since the last posting date. It would be instructive for readers to compare what you said then to what has happened and what you say now. Also, I and many others think we really are on the cusp of a major drop in prices.

You may not have the time for this, but especially for new people, this kind of summary and display of the software via specific example, the software’s graphics and terminology, and its performance will all serve to gain more advocates and supporters.

Sometimes we tend to get involved in the details of implementation at the expense of clearly showing the results and methods at a higher, summarized level. I know you have the webinars, but consolidating it to a report like this last one works better [in my view] for beginners. And even though it may negatively impact when you have time to get to MW wave analysis, I think updating this site at points where it appears that a major apex is forming is time well spent.

DonK

]]>Your approach sounds very interesting. You should post to the Hurst Trader’s User Forum about it, where you can also post pictures, and there is a good deal of discussion about trading the markets using various cyclic theories.

This page accepts text comments only.

The forum is here: http://www.fortuna.co.za/forum/index.php ]]>

Hello to all, I am new here and have just read the article above…..

As per TIME, I have been using combinations of TIME to forecast possible turns for a while now.

I had the idea a cpl of years ago that the mkts had to be DYNAMIC therefore the analysis had to be dymanic aswell, I got the most recent move and then the largest move in the same direction and put on the current turn point that fit the price calculations, and when combining TIME AND PRICE in this manner it is amazing how well it works. I do it on the Daily first, then the Hourly and can break cycles down very well.

This takes consistant monitoring of all the cycles, but working down from the larger to the smaller becomes easier as you get used to it.

I am no expert, but keeping it simple and having patience to see what occurs are the best qualties that can be mastered.

When I work out how to post images I will post to show what I mean.

Regards to all

David

]]>I don’t think that you are “missing” anything. Of course it is impossible to consider an infinite number of cycles – in fact Hurst recommended “at least TWO”. Using THT you can determine the status, or “phasing” of several cycles in most cases (depending on how much data you have analysed).

I would be very careful of the “extrapolation” you mention. If extrapolating a line representing all longer cycles was at all mathematically sound then I would have had THT follow that relatively simple process. There is a good deal of mathematical conjuring that happens when it comes to extrapolating lines into the future, and in my experience it is all no better than guesswork. THT uses the cycle wavelengths to project into the future, using a “pattern building” process, not in a way that is similar to the extrapolation of lines using a mathematical process such as linear regression.

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